Dispute risk analysis, methodology, and guides for prediction market traders.
GuideAfter analysing 1,686 disputes, three patterns account for the vast majority. Here's how to spot them in 30 seconds and what our scoring model does automatically.
Data1,686 markets were disputed through the UMA oracle. We break down the patterns, the repeat offenders, and the categories that are consistently safe.
ExplainerThe optimistic oracle is great for objective questions. It fails predictably on subjective ones. Here's the mechanism and what it means for your capital.
ComparisonWe scored markets on both platforms. Kalshi is safer by design. Polymarket is more interesting by design. The data shows exactly why.
DeveloperYour bot checks price, volume, and close date. It doesn't check for disputes. Add one API call and three lines of code to fix that.